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2024-12-14 12:36:59

Ye Fan, Southwest Securities: In 2025, the upward trend of domestic economy will continue, and it is estimated that the annual RRR will be lowered by about 100bp. The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. Ye Fan, chief economist of Southwest Securities, said that in 2025, the domestic economy will continue to stabilize and upward under the policy. From the structural point of view, infrastructure and manufacturing investment are expected to remain the main support items for domestic investment next year, and the decline in real estate investment will gradually narrow; Domestic demand is expected to play a stronger role in stimulating the economy than external demand, and domestic residents' consumption is expected to continue to pick up under the policy. Regarding the direction of fiscal and monetary policies, Ye Fan predicted that the issuance scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds will be around 1.5 trillion -2 trillion yuan in 2025, and it will continue to support the "dual" areas. In the first half of next year or the peak of government bond issuance, there may be a RRR cut for hedging. It is estimated that the RRR cut will be about 100bp for the whole year, and the interest rate cut will be decided by camera. The interest rate cut of 25bp-40bp may be promoted step by step.Turkish regulators will block access to dozens of cryptocurrency exchanges.In November 2024, the securities industry was fined 38 tickets for brokerage business, and the Shanghai Securities Industry Association released the dynamics of supervision and punishment for brokers in November 2024. According to open market statistics, in November 2024, securities companies, their branches and securities practitioners received 38 letters of various administrative penalties, administrative regulatory measures and self-regulatory measures. From the specific field of punishment business, there are 15 brokerage businesses, 12 investment banking businesses, 7 internal management companies, 2 research businesses and 2 practitioners' practice behaviors.


Market News: Indonesia's central bank has made triple intervention to maintain market confidence in the Indonesian rupiah.Zhejiang: By 2027, the output value of the province's industrial machine tool industry will exceed 150 billion yuan. The Office of the Leading Group for High-quality Development of Manufacturing Industry in Zhejiang Province recently issued the Implementation Plan for High-quality Development of Industrial Machine Tool Industry in Zhejiang Province (2025-2027). The "Implementation Plan" proposes that by 2025, the output value of the province's industrial machine tool industry will exceed 120 billion yuan, making it the highland of the national high-end industrial machine tool industry. Positive results have been achieved in the construction of the national advanced manufacturing cluster of East Zhejiang industrial machine tools, with 30 new "little giant" enterprises specializing in manufacturing and 50 new products. Form a number of application scenarios with national promotion value. By 2027, the output value of the province's industrial machine tool industry will exceed 150 billion yuan, the supporting level of key core technologies and key functional components will be greatly improved, and the level of integrated application will be at the forefront of the country.South Korea's KOSPI index erased all the declines since the martial law storm.


A small plane crashed on a highway in New York, USA, causing one death and one injury. On the evening of December 12, local time, a small plane crashed on a highway in Westchester County, New York, USA, killing one of the two people on board and injuring the other. It is reported that the plane crashed into the guardrail in the middle of the highway. Emergency rescue vehicles blocked all the lanes of the accident section, and the environmental protection department has rushed to the scene to clean up the leaked aviation fuel.CICC: Depleting inventories to eliminate excess supply is still the main direction. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. In terms of real estate, the meeting will "continue to push the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize" as the primary task of risk prevention. The research department of CICC believes that destocking to eliminate excess supply is still the main direction. First, control the supply of new land; second, optimize the supply structure of existing land and commercial housing; it is expected that the supply optimization policies such as land ticket, land exchange and commercial housing reform will be further promoted; third, dispose of existing commercial housing; it is expected that the efforts to store unsold commercial housing and existing second-hand housing for affordable housing will be increased; fourth, intensify the implementation of the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses.Pakistan KSE-100 index opened up 0.3% to 114,767.90.

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